Thursday, July 29, 2004

going local... and geopolitical repercussions

Recently President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo made a very hard decision. It was a political decision designed to win popularity among Filipinos. She moved the Philippine government for the release of a hostage Filipino cverseas contract worker (OCW) from Iraqi rebels. With mounting pressure from political groups and oppositionists to free the filipino migrant worker, she made the decision, and when the Filipino was freed proclaimed the OCW as a hero of the Filipino people and led in heaping financial assistance to him, his kin and his barrio.

This is a command decision based on "the good of the few against the good of the many." It may have been short-sighted. It was a strong decision but not one on the path of the greater good. Afterwards she gave a sort-of apology to the rest of the world. She pointed out that it was her "personal" decision and that if there would be any blame it would be hers. After more than 2 years in office, she has still to learn that she is the President of the Republic of the Philippines. She has still to learn that she is the Head of State and its main representative. Whatever she does, she does on behalf of the country. Whatever deed she does, is the deed of the country.

In saving the Filipino OCW, Mrs. Arroyo basked in the glory of the rescue. Her popularity is high and the Filipino is satisfied. For now. She then goes to work, and turns to getting new corporate taxes passed because the government is in a huge deficit. She has a lot of work to do in the next six years and a lot of it is going to unpopular.

Unfortunately, this is a locally popular decision. It is insular in its concept. And it is going to put more pressure on her presidency. Mrs. Arroyo has always maintained that she is popular abroad with other heads of state, now that popularity has fast eroded. The American Ambassador has gone to the United States for consultation. This, I believe, was called a "recall." After that, the United States Secretary of State gave a scathing remark about Mrs. Arroyo and the Philippines that it is not only not honoring commitments, but also indifferent to the war on terrorism. The Australian Ambassador to the Philippines is making statements that to the same effect. And now, Filipinos in the United States are suspect and there will probably be a strong drive to sendillegal aliens (particularly Filipinos) home.

On the short term export restrictions will come on line, there's the export of mangoes to Australia, exports of sugar, copra and coconut/palm oil, travel and tourism restrictions for Americans visiting the country. Military and financial aid might also not be given to the country. Jobs where American companies directly hire Filipinos from the Philippines, these might also dry-up.

That the Filipino is brave is not being questioned. That the Filipino turned around is at issue just when the United States was scrounging around for support for their (sagging) war on terrorism. At this point in time, no amount of historical lessons will suffice to support or prove the Philippine stand that we are steadfast in the war on terrorism and that we remain staunch allies of America (and Australia). Bataan is just a 60-year old memory compared to Iraq, Afghanistan and Al-Qaida.

It would do well for Filipinos to note that the current sour relationships between France and America stemmed from a 1969 incident where they were selling arms to both sides of the Middle East conflict. And this, after almost two centuries of close and chummy relationship dating back to the French support of the American War of Independence against Britain.

Even at the start of the crisis, it was clear that Mrs. Arroyo will try her best to save the poor Filipino hostage in Iraq. Whether there was pressure or not from the opposition. She had already negotiated with hostages before, when the son and daughter of a congressman were kidnapped.

I cannot agree with her on that matter, but then again, I am in the small minority who would rather continue with present international commitments and weather the hostage crisis, rather than talk to terrorists. The good of a few hundred people in Pampanga will be short-term. The hardship on the rest of the Philippines is yet to come, and we might not see the end of it. To save face, we might need to send a thousand military troops, more than double that of the Thai contingent. And even then, that might not be enough.

This will be a long and hard six years under the Arroyo Presidency.

--andoy

allvoices

No comments: